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collyrob 3:42 Sun Oct 1
Catalan referendum

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Mex Martillo 11:54 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
They finally have to start to talk to negociate a deal that is supported by a majority. Rajoy cannot keep his hard line and jail more people for having democratically supported ideals. But he will not change more trouble on the horizon...

Mex Martillo 11:52 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
I agree Independence did not win the popular vote and probably would not in a referendum.
But it is very close perhaps closer then you guys understand:

For Independence parties (Junts, Erc, Cup) = 2,046,710
Parties that supported ending Catalan regional gov. (Cid, POSe, PP) = 1,870,192
Party that supports a referendum, but neither side (Podem) = 320,269

BRANDED 11:31 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
The best solution is one where everybody gets what the want.

Chigwell 11:25 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
The Spanish government cannot cling indefinitely to a 40-year-old constitutional law if the majority of Catalonian voters really want independence. But there is a suspicion of a Scottish attitude to the issue, i.e. to vote for independence parties but not to grasp the nettle when it comes to an actual choice at a referendum.
The previous Catalan referendum cannot be taken as valid, because it had already been declared illegal which would have deterred pro-union voters, or simply the nervous and frail. Will Madrid approve a formal referendum to decide the question? It's a big risk to take but it appears to be the only way to reach a solution in the current circumstances.

, 11:21 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Not only did the separatists fail to win the popular vote ( although the lost by a far narrower margin than minority President Trump ) they actually lost by their biggest margin, in terms of popular vote, in the major province of Barcelona.

It’s obvious that there is not a clear cut mandate for a complete separation.

harold 11:02 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
They won a few more seats, but not the popular vote: so when a referendum is called, they will probably lose.

Mex Martillo 10:43 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Comma, should be no problem the same 3 parties were in a coalition and declared independence before the Spanish government dissolved the parliament and ended regional goverment from Catalonia.

Oh yes Sven, win for barca, I have a great day planned, watch Barca thrash Madrid in a pub near the ground and then along for my first visit to the OS to see West Ham thrash Newcastle, hope it all works out!

Sven Roeder 10:34 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Real Madrid v Barcelona at midday tomorrow
Should make that winner take all .... stay as Spain or let Catalonia go

Willtell 9:57 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Of course Catalonia will have to come out of the EU under current rules....

, 12:34 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Mex, the big question is will the combined pro independence parties, who look like ending up with a 4 seats majority in the 136 seat asembly, form a stable coalition and negotiate a separation agreement with central government.

Mex Martillo 12:23 Fri Dec 22
Re: Catalan referendum
Well there we have it, another parlimentary majority for independence in The Republic of Catalonia.

Massive, over 80% turnout.

So, what do the Spanish do?

Will the Spanish return power to the democratically elected Catalan parliament?

Will the Spanish release the political prisoners and allow exiled politicians to return to lead their parties that just won the election?

Mex Martillo 5:40 Sun Nov 5
Re: Catalan referendum
On the 21st of Dec, I see the Catalans voting in another parlimentary majority for independence.

Spanish Governement will not accept that and will either after the election or perhaps before start outlawing parties that campagne with a manifesto for independence and start a new wave of jailing people. They will not return regional Government to Catalonia as long as this continues, initially Spanish Government has taken direct rule of Catalonia for a 6 month period.

This conflict and jailing will probably go on until there is a General election and a change in Spains Government. The ruling party have no majority and it is highly lightly to fall if this continues too long.

Also production in Catalonia and Spain will drop and recovery from recession slow or enter recession again.

Coffee 9:06 Sun Nov 5
Re: Catalan referendum

Champagne for elections notwithstanding, how do you see things going in the coming weeks/months?

Mex Martillo 8:41 Sun Nov 5
Re: Catalan referendum
What week for Catalonia
Friday 27 Oct: Declare independence
Saturday 28 Oct: Spain takes direct rule of Catalonia
Sunday 29 Oct: massive demonstation for Spanish unity
Monday 30 Oct: Spain draws up charges against Catalan politicians, Puigdemont goes to Belgium
Thursday 2 Nov: Spain arrests 9 Catalan politicians
Friday 3: Massive demonstrations to free politicians, Puigdemont starts champagne for elections on 21 Dec

Mex Martillo 8:31 Sun Nov 5
Re: Catalan
It is true all parts of a country are important. UK needs Scotlands industry and exports. Ireland has a much closer relationship with the UK than rest of EU and needs the trade with the UK. The UK needs EU and Irish markets. Change these relationship and things may worsen, but probably not disastrous.

Willtell 9:42 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
Truth is Mex most countries would work it out. Scotland needs England's financial support but just hates to admit it.

Frankly Ireland also needs England too. Much more than it needs the EU. If they had any sense they'd get back into the UK but they are Irish so don't have a scubies....

Mex Martillo 1:29 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
I do not agree to much with these analysis of doom and gloom when things change. I am sure Catalona and Spain would be fine separate probably a bit worse off, but no disasters. I think Scotland can do okay on its own, yes may struggle, but lets face it there are plenty of countries in the world that are worse than Scotland would be. Similarly, I am sure the UK will be worse of with brexit, but lets face some facts the UK is a stronge country and will be fine on its own even in the worst case scenario and much much better than a shit load of other countries, probably most of the world.

By the way perhaps oddly, I did not and do not support Scottish independence, there is a good relationship there and I think we are better united. However, I support Catalonian independence as there is no healthy relationship and I think the best thing for both is separation.

Willtell 12:50 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
Very interesting Mex. Catalonia is an area of interest for my wife and I. It's a 4 hour drive from our home in SW France so we often nip to that region for a break from Roses down to Sitges along the Costa Brava.

One of my mates is a local French farmer that has a country house near Figueres. Him and his Mrs are always down there as he farms hazelnuts and the orchards mostly take care of themselves.

It would be strange to have to cross a border if they get independence now but I'm a European now although I support the result of the Brexit referendum.

My thoughts are that there's a big difference between Scotland and Catalonia's desire for independence. Scotland would not survive financially. All the indications are that Catalonia would easily survive but Spain would struggle even more than they are now. It would be a bit like USA losing California to independence I guess...

Mex Martillo 10:19 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
Ahh, it is true if you look at it like that and say all the people that did not vote would have voted no. Therefore, it is 2m voted yes and 3m did not vote and would have voted no, so no wins by a long way. But we all know it does not work like that. Going down this hypothetical arguement I think it is more likely that it is too close to call and would be similar to Scotland or Brexit. Probably about 2m would vote no and about 1m would not vote around 80% turn out is good for these things. It really does need a proper referendum, but for that to happen it needs a radical change in Spains political elite. Which is kind of slowly happening, but needs time or may reverse, who knows.

The other option is to address why people want independnce. As usual it is because they the Catalans think they get an unfair deal from Spain. There is an agreement on how the finances work between the regions and the central governement. In 2006, this agreement was being renegotiated bewteen Catalonia and the central governwment. Talks broke down and central governement just tore it up and started to impose how they thought it should be. They just refuse to discuss it anymore. Sound democratic?Over the last 10 years and through the crise the central governement has been taking a lot more from Catanlonia than it gives back. The stats are there, Catalonia produces 20% of Spains exports and 25% of Spains GDP, but is the region with the biggest debt in Spain. This you see everyday, healthcare system that barely works, motorways build with private money and with tolls as public money was not available, while Madrid and other regions have free public built motorways. It fucks people off and they want Indendence. But make the agreement fairer and the inpedencence vote would lose a lot of support.

At the end of they day Spanish are being authoritarian cunts and deserve that Catalonia fucks off.

Willtell 9:44 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
Interesting Mex. I only reported what my Madrid based daughter's Spanish boyfriend told me about not getting a majority. Clearly he was the equivalent of a Brexit remainer trying to find a reason to deny a referendum! Not a majority because less than half voted....

I think I said that Spain was only encouraging the eventual split by prosecuting people involved. I'm not sure Spaniards or rather Catalans, are as determined as Brits but we have historically made a habit of winning in spite of amazingly incompetent leaders giving rise to amazingly inspiring leaders....

Mex Martillo 9:33 Sat Nov 4
Re: Catalan
Willtell, Thats not correct the first "referendum" gave a similar result as the vote on 1 Oct, low turn out of just yes voters, about 90% for indendence, I voted in that one.

There are obviously inadequacies in the process to declare the Republic of Catalonia, but it has been completed democratically and Spain are prosecuting people for their politics. The process was that political parties stood for election in 2015 with the manifesto to make a referendum and declare independence. These parties won a majority in the parliment, this was democratic and everyone knew what they were voting for. Surprise, surprise, they did exactly what they said (not normal in politics), obviously the 1 Oct referendum went a bit wrong, but they did try to get dialouge about it with Madrid or anyone.

Spains answer is to jail them and start again. It will be the same, about 2,000,000 people in a region with 7m and an electorate of 5m want this. Jailing people supported by this 2m will make these 2m more determined and probably increase the 2m, I see it happening around me. I will be very surprised if the election on 21 Dec does not return a majority in the parliament for independence. But maybe I am wrong and all this suppresssion changes peoples minds, but people ussually get more determined, Spain thinks it can scare them it is very sad.

Spains handling is worrying, it is authoritarian it ignores 2m people. They jail people with opinons that they do not like, they use violence to oppress people making a minor crime of trying to vote illegally, now they have started prosecuting people that post against the government on social media. The way things are going this post may get me in trouble, but I have a feeling it is okay and WHO will escape the radar...

If the EU continues to support this and deports Puigdemont it will show the EU is a joke. I will for the first time see the UK is right with brexit.

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