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Queens Fish Bar 12:59 Thu Dec 20
People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
People with radical political views, both on the left and the right, are less able to judge when they are incorrect, a study suggests.

Scientists at University College London found those on the political fringes tended to overestimate their certainty after getting questions wrong.

But the researchers were not testing their knowledge of politics. Instead, they used a simple game in which participants had to gauge which picture they were presented with contained more dots.

Their study was an attempt to measure “metacognition” – the term for a person’s ability to recognise when they are wrong.

They wanted to establish whether the dogmatic beliefs of political radicals were down to overconfidence in those specific opinions, or more general differences in metacognition.

In their study, the scientists asked two groups of around 400 people to complete surveys measuring their political beliefs and attitudes towards alternative world views.

From these surveys they identified those at the extreme right and left ends of the spectrum.

These individuals were characterised by radical views concerning authoritarianism and intolerance towards others.

Participants were then asked to complete a simple task in which they looked at two pictures and judged which one had the most dots on it.



Afterwards they were asked to rate how confident they are in making their decisions, and the scientists used cash rewards to incentivise them to judge their confidence accurately.

“We found that people who hold radical political beliefs have worse metacognition than those with more moderate views,” said lead author and neuroscientist Dr Steve Fleming.

“They often have a misplaced certainty when they’re actually wrong about something, and are resistant to changing their beliefs in the face of evidence that proves them wrong.”


To test how participants reacted to being proved wrong, they were shown a bonus set of dots that should have nudged them towards the correct decision.

For moderates who had made the wrong decision the first time, being shown this bonus information made them less confident in their choice. Radicals, on the other hand, held onto their initial decision even after seeing evidence suggesting it was incorrect.

While the researchers were confident their results stood up to scrutiny, having replicated them in two sets of people, their task only explained some of the radicalism on show.



“We suspect that this is because the task is completely unrelated to politics – people may be even more unwilling to admit to being wrong if politics had come into play,” said PhD student Max Rollwage.

One conclusion they drew from their study, published in the journal Current Biology, was that the failure of metacognition held true across the political spectrum.

They said this suggested radicalism was based on a way of thinking that “transcends political inclinations”.

Replies - Newest Posts First (Show In Chronological Order)

Willtell 6:26 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
That clears it up then....

BRANDED 6:18 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
And yet 9/10ths of the World are relgious or believe in a religion and live in peace. Extreme weapons come from that combination of emperical knowledge and capitalism.

Queens Fish Bar 4:07 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
BOOM!

Queens Fish Bar 4:07 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
The Kronic 2:00 Thu Dec 20

Religion and extreme political views are very similar.

They are both the outcomes of assumed thinking.

They think that something is the case without there being empirical evidence to prove that something is the case with factual certainty.

ironsofcanada 1:26 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
BRANDED 1:04 Mon Dec 24

A handful of anecdotes, one of which was a joke, don't constitute a great point.

And for someone who is critical of capitalism, gauging John Coltrane's success on his earnings is pretty coldly capitalistic.

Every once in while you do get the libertarians terms down, they just don't actually match your views.

Merry Christmas as well.

BRANDED 1:06 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Of course. Property rights and rule of law are essential.

Happy Christmas.

BRANDED 1:04 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Dizzy Gillespie was asked if he was the best trumpeter he ever knew and he said " man there were cats out in the country who could blow me away but they were ugly muthafuckers"
John Coltrane is earning more now, 60 years after his death, than he ever made alive.

There's an Irish plumber who lives down my street.Bought his house when everyone else was moving out for £10k. Now worth 1.5 million. He also bought 5 other properties with debt over 50 years and has a property portfolio of about 6 million.

He bet on property and won. Hewon most of it through debt.

There are many ways to get rich but spending all ypur earnings is not a good one.

ironsofcanada 12:56 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
BRANDED 12:37 Mon Dec 24

Really?

First, "being clever" is being good at something, so your last sentence invalidates much of your point.

Second, "knowing how to do it" is also being good at something, so that invalidates much the of the rest.

But do you really think, wanting something, learning the theory, and then getting lucky is how successful people get successful? They don't work for it? You must have been handed everything in life if you really believe that.

You bringing up a jazz musician - John Coltrane was one of my idols growing up, amazing musical talent and mind, that saw improvisation like the matrix. But to do something with that, he practiced scales 7 hours a day. Just scales.

ironsofcanada 12:46 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
BRANDED 12:27 Mon Dec 24

"Socialism is a counter to capitalism. In most places on Earth they act in tandem. Capitalists need protection from revolution."

Socialists love thinking of themselves as part of an almost Aristotelian form of an Marxian "revolution" (think about "the" revolution) or at least they love the label,(Look at all Che shirts out there.)

Thing is, if you actually look at the history, socialism , needs as much protection from revolution as capitalism,

I think it is because forms of each which have strayed too far from the human nature.

BRANDED 12:37 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
I can be the best Jazz musician or IT specialist on Earth but if I dint know how to turn that into value that's all I am.

Neither working hard or being good nakes you successful and well off. In my experience wanting to be better off is the starting point for most people to get there. Knowing how to do it is the second one. Being clever or lucky is the third.

ironsofcanada 12:32 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
BRANDED 12:27 Mon Dec 24

Quote my whole sentence or your analysis of it looks either under-thought or disingenuous.

BRANDED 12:27 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Socialism is a counter to capitalism. In most places on Earth they act in tandem. Capitalists need protection from revolution.

"we get that working harder"

All kinds of people work hard. The amount you work has little to do with reward. How you extract value is the path to reward and that is done through all manner of clever ways or brute force or just plain luck.

PwoperNaughtyButNot 12:13 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Darby over the last 100yrs where has capitalism created more poverty than what was before?

Over the same period how many people have been lifted out of poverty due to socialism?

ironsofcanada 12:12 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
I have a pretty simple view of politics these days after years previous in my life studying complex views and even trying to work in implementing them.

Human nature is unequal, we are different people with different skills and levels of ability, and generally we get that working harder or being better at something should be rewarded. But the vast majority of us don't like seeing people suffer, more so if they are close to use.

So the best system is basically capitalistic, with as small as possible set of structures to prevent abuse and mitigate bad luck/circumstance.

Ones that stray left or right of that, however, well-meaning eventually run into problems.

People can take moral stances either way but I think forcing people into a system that is against their nature is a highly immoral thing to do.

Willtell 12:07 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Darby_ 11:17
I agree with your opening gambit but I'm not sure anyone on here is advocating "pure, unfettered capitalism". Most of us capitalists recognise that a degree of social care is sensible otherwise you end up with a fucked up country like America.

The owners of WHUFC are examples that capitalism does allow people to get rich if you have the attitude to do it.

I personally know three people that are not rich but all are 'comfortably off' after starting their own businesses and employing hundreds of people. Two left school at 15 with no formal qualifications. One sold his successful company before taking early retirement several years ago. The 2nd is still reaping in big bucks at 69. The 3rd was a qualified accountant and sold up his wholesale business to his two sons that had also started their own successful chain retail business...

It isn't that rare in my circle of friends but you do need to be unique in some way, prepared to take calculated risks and do what's necessary to make it work, as Gold and Sullivan have proven.

In my experience, most of life's socialists are those that have no chance of succeeding from their own efforts so try to screw their life's expectations from obvious targets. That's those people that range from nasty to nice, socially aware capitalists but, all should contribute more to the poorest..... which usually includes them and academic types that have never really worked in their lives but think they do...

Just my honest opinion....

BRANDED 11:54 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
People can be dogmatic from any point of view. Being flexible allows you the opportunity to do best from any situation. Circumstances change.

Re America: Its croney capitalism. Its the 1% paying for the politicians and pretty much everything else. That said if one person is rich enough to own the World and do good there's nothing much wrong with that?

dm 11:34 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
I am reminded a bit of a friend of mine who is a nice chap, but very opinionated and won't tolerate views that oppose his.
what is a little odd about him is that most people who take that attitude with political views are usually very far to the left or right. But the chap in question is virtually dead center politically, or possibly just slightly left of center.

Darby_ 11:17 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
PwoperNaughtyButNot 8:15 Mon Dec 24

Maybe the people who made a lot of money for themselves are smart enough to see that it's not a matter of dispensing with capitalism but making it fairer.

The idea that pure, unfettered capitalism allows poor people to get rich is a myth, so they're doing the opposite of kicking the ladder away after they've climbed it.

Social mobility is much higher in a social-democrat country than it is in the hyper-capitalist US or the UK. Someone brought up in modest circumstances in Denmark or Sweden has a much better chance of becoming rich than in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Gatsby_curve#/media/File:The_Great_Gatsby_Curve.png

That doesn't mean that capitalism is bad. It just means that the purest forms of capitalism lead to reduced social mobility, and generation after generation of poverty on the one hand and wealth on the other.

BRANDED 10:48 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Not at all. My parents had little money.

Its not hard to make money. Its what you do with it. I recognise most just like spending it.

Willtell 10:41 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
You say a lot on here BRANDED and some of it even makes sense sometimes.

What I actually meant was that your money clearly came by inheritance. You don't have the sense to make it yourself except by investment of inherited dosh.

I'm right aren't I...?

BRANDED 10:37 Mon Dec 24
Re: People with extreme political views cannot tell when they are wrong’
Yeah. That's a poblem. Capitalism contrives to make loads of shit jobs and then to make those people redundant. I invest in companies that both create shit jobs and that will make others redundant.

Its why I have always said on here take a personal responsibility for your life and dont expect others to do it for you.

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