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goose 12:23 Wed Jan 22
This coronavirus in China
anyone else worried? 9 dead so far.

CNY soon so the virus will spread very quickly if they cannot control it. It'll be in Europe by the end of CNY if not earlier.

is this the end of humanity?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51202216

Replies - Newest Posts First (Show In Chronological Order)

arsene york-hunt 6:55 Sat Jan 23
Re: This coronavirus in China
I think they should be letting us old gits back into the ground seeing as we're all being vaccinated.

The old c wing 12:46 Sat Jan 23
Re: This coronavirus in China
Deal,

Here you go

https://www.covid-arg.com/post/how-soon-to-see-the-vaccine-s-benefits

dealcanvey 12:43 Sat Jan 23
Re: This coronavirus in China
Once everyone over say 60 and the vulnerable have had the jab surely we will see a serious decline in hospitalisation and death?

One jab may not make you immune but if you was to catch COVID thereafter surely the illness would be less serious.

Wonder when we will know how this is working.

The old c wing 11:08 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
A really detailed analysis of the PCR issues

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x5yPkxCLads

Guy Gibsons Dog 10:16 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Simon.S this is the Russian approach, it is two pronged

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/21/russian-region-becomes-first-to-introduce-covid-19-passports-a72678

Guy Gibsons Dog 10:12 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
White Pony - personally I simply think that they just dont know, i think that the mantra should be "promise less and deliver more”.

simon.s 9:51 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Guy Gibsons Dog 9:42 Fri Jan 22

Agree about the antibody tests. That’s something they could have really ramped up last year, to give us an even better idea of where we are in all this.

White Pony 9:46 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
This is just more carefully drip-fed bad news designed to keep everyone behaving themselves.

Too Much Too Young 9:44 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
i think its a given we'll need a new vaccine each year.


each one hopefully releasing billions of nanobots to rebuild me to a super human 5g Lab icon.

Guy Gibsons Dog 9:42 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Simon

If circa 5 million have been vaccinated, if circa 3.5 million have tested positive, they will have some sort of antibody, add onto that an unknow number that have neither been tested of have tested positive, the number could be far greater.

All in all I think that this is a classic Boris "moonshot" moment and putting all eggs in one basket.

A lot more should be done with antibody testing, that will be my first port of call, I can get one for £ 95 on Bupa.

Step 1 - Antibody test - positive antibodies, back of the queue for vaccine
Step 2 - Vaccines


In Russia there is one region that are starting to issue immunity passports, basically if you have gained natural immunity by having had the virus, you get a passport, I think for 6 months, if you have the vaccine, you get an immunity passport for 12 months, the short durations offered simply demonstrates how little is known. I think the risk is looking for a "silver bullet", where the solution could be "bronze buckshot"

simon.s 9:32 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Well I don’t really see any other way out of this shit show than the vaccine. It’s getting the majority of the people to be convinced into having it that could be a problem.

goose 9:21 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Probably just me, but the people are sounding less & less convinced by this vaccine.........

AKA ERNIE 9:15 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Looks like yet another branded fuck up

Side of Ham 9:14 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Branded, exciting bloke...

DJ's Lackey

London - Lisbon - Isle of Wight

gph 9:02 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
So you didn't comment on it, and your little outburst is just you claiming some kind of imaginary ownership of it, BECAUSE YOU C&PED IT.

And yesterday was 21st.

gph 9:02 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
So you didn't comment on it, and your little outburst is just you claiming some kind of imaginary ownership of it, BECAUSE YOU C&PED IT.

And yesterday was 21st.

Johnson 8:51 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Thursday isn’t a couple of days before Friday, Branded.

Even when you’re actually telling the truth you make it look like you’re bullshitting, that’s quite the skill.

gph 8:47 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
Why didn't you refer to my comments on the article, instead of crying because you thought I was trying take away your gold star for C&Ping it?

You're a vain fool - as demonstrated, not just asserted.

BRANDED 8:44 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
BRANDED 3:21 Thu Jan 21
Re: This coronavirus in China
NEW SCIENTIST

POLICY-MAKERS are scrabbling to contain the spread of the coronavirus, as more highly transmissible variants travel around the world. Yet the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in this way comes as no surprise to virologists. In fact, it is probably just one step on a much longer evolutionary trajectory. In time, virologists predict, the virus will become more benign, following an evolutionary pathway previously taken by four other human coronaviruses that today cause nothing more than the “common cold”. How could this happen, and how will our actions play a part?

Coronaviruses tend to evolve slowly compared with other RNA viruses because they proofread their genetic material as they replicate, so can filter out mutations. What’s more, SARS-CoV-2 isn’t currently under much pressure to change, says virologist Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. It is successfully colonising a new species – with an open banquet of hosts – and variants that spread faster are outcompeting others.

But evolutionary pressures are starting to kick in. As the virus encounters increasing resistance from antibodies among people who have been infected or vaccinated, new mutations become more likely to take hold. Indeed, some experts suggest that the new variants we currently see arose inside the bodies of people with long-lasting infections.

Lab studies back up this idea. “Some of these variants emerged in vitro when the virus was cultured for several days in the presence of convalescent plasma,” says Manuela Sironi, an evolutionary virologist at the Scientific Institute IRCCS Eugenio Medea in Italy.

We don’t know exactly what mutations might increase the speed at which the virus can spread. SARS-CoV-2 has four main structural proteins, including the spike protein that sticks out from its surface and helps it attach to cells in the body, as well as non-structural proteins that hijack the machinery inside host cells.

Changes in transmission would probably involve mutations in the spike, which is targeted by the vaccines, says Sironi.

It is impossible to say which mutations would make SARS-CoV-2 more or less deadly. “That is more casino than science at the moment,” says Marc Van Ranst at KU Leuven in Belgium. “There are a gazillion possible mutations.”

Familiar trajectory

It is also difficult to predict whether SARS-CoV-2 will evolve to be more harmful, says Sironi. But Van Ranst is optimistic. “Its aim is not to kill us or make us sick,” he says. “The virus is successful when it is unnoticed and gets transmitted easily.”

Most virologists tend to agree, suspecting that SARS-CoV-2 will follow a similar evolutionary trajectory to the four endemic coronaviruses that cause the “common cold”, prosaically called 229E, HKU1, NL63 and OC43.

If so, we, as hosts, will be a crucial driver in this change. The key here is that people never seem to first encounter these endemic coronaviruses as adults. In 2013, scientists at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) in Beijing measured antibodies for these four common viruses. The type of antibodies generated by a first infection (immunoglobulin M, or IgM) were found only in children. Becoming a “common cold” is as much about us as the virus, says Baric. “My guess is that many of these common coronaviruses, if introduced directly into a very, very naive population of adults, would probably be pretty brutal.”

Baric believes that as SARS-CoV-2 bumps into more resistance in adults, it may be pushed to evolve in this direction. “It is possible the virus has to change a little just to maintain itself in children,” he says. It may evolve to escape immunity by being able to better replicate in the nose, and so turn into an upper respiratory infection, like the other endemic coronaviruses. These occasionally cause serious disease in children, but usually result in little more than a runny nose. “Children typically have less severe disease than adults,” says Baric.

If SARS-CoV-2 follows this pattern, then it should become much less deadly. Other coronavirus infections in healthy adults are usually mild, but reoccur. A 1990 experiment revealed that adults infected with 229E were open to reinfection one year later. The China CDC antibody study also found that 70 per cent of adults had antibodies for the four endemic coronaviruses. Every two to three years, it seems people become more susceptible to these viruses, says Baric. They are re-infected, but retain enough immune memory to fight off severe disease and experience only mild symptoms. Reinfection seems to act as an immune booster.

“Even without relevant genetic changes, SARS-CoV-2 might eventually turn into the fifth endemic coronavirus,” says Sironi.

Recent modelling by epidemiologist Jennie Lavine at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, and her colleagues supports this, concluding that once the virus is endemic and first exposure is in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 will be relegated to a common cold. “Primary infections tend to be more severe, especially in older people,” says Lavine. “As primary infections increasingly are restricted to children, we expect the disease severity to overall become mild.”

Unknown timescale

This has all happened before, according to Van Ranst, who in 2005 reported that OC43 probably jumped to people from cattle and triggered a pandemic in the late 19th century dubbed the Russian flu. The bad news is that we don’t know how long it took OC43 to dilute to a common cold virus or when SARS-CoV-2 will join the endemic club. “Our model suggests that the quicker people get exposed, the quicker we get to that mild state,” says Lavine. Without vaccines, that would push up deaths.

What’s more, endemic coronaviruses can still cause pneumonia in older people. In 2003, when a disease ran rampant in an elderly care home in Canada and killed one in 12 of the residents that it infected, a coronavirus was suspected. It turned out to be OC43. So even a much tamer SARS-CoV-2 may still be a threat to older people for a long time to come.

Lee Trundle 8:44 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
BRANDED sees himself as a Dr QUIM Medicine Woman.

BRANDED 8:42 Fri Jan 22
Re: This coronavirus in China
You’re transparently a fucking idiot

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