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The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 09 Dec 2024, 09:19
by Come On You Irons
There. Resident WHO political commentators and gurus can knock yourselves out in here and conduct your endless bickering. All other threads will be locked.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 16:11
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 15:37
goose wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 13:17
Nutsin wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 12:50
You daft cսnt $300 billion is 1% of our $30 Trillion GDP.

“need growth that is unprecedented” what a cսnt’

GO away you Div!

No wonder you failed GCSE business studies.

Even if GDP growth accelerated from ~2 % to ~3–4 % for many years, it still wouldn’t generate enough additional revenue to cover the full multi-trillion-dollar cost of the cuts. 
You’d need additional GDP growth of ~7–8 percentage points above baseline every year — sustained over a decade — purely to generate enough extra revenue to match the revenue loss.
To match the revenue loss. That’s the entire loss of the revenue, Not the $300 billion deficit numbnuts.

Really? You actually want to carry on embarrassing yourself on this?

GDP isn’t government income. To recoup the loss in tax revenues GDP would have to grow more than 8%. Simple maths that I reckon my son could master.

You think that is going to happen?

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 15:37
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 13:17
Nutsin wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 12:50
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:25
Not an exact science but not something you get wrong by $300bn.
Like I said, you’d need growth which is historically unprecedented to cover the loss of tax revenues. To the point where it’s completely unthinkable and unimaginable.

So yes I’d bet my house on something that has less than 1% of happening.
You daft cսnt $300 billion is 1% of our $30 Trillion GDP.

“need growth that is unprecedented” what a cսnt’

GO away you Div!

No wonder you failed GCSE business studies.

Even if GDP growth accelerated from ~2 % to ~3–4 % for many years, it still wouldn’t generate enough additional revenue to cover the full multi-trillion-dollar cost of the cuts. 
You’d need additional GDP growth of ~7–8 percentage points above baseline every year — sustained over a decade — purely to generate enough extra revenue to match the revenue loss.
To match the revenue loss. That’s the entire loss of the revenue, Not the $300 billion deficit numbnuts.


Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 13:26
by goose
Very simply for you: 
  • The US collects about $5 trillion a year in taxes
    • That’s only ~17–18% of GDP
  • Because taxes are ~18% of GDP:
    • 1% extra GDP growth only raises tax revenue by ~0.18% of GDP
    • That’s about $55bn per year on today’s economy
  • To cover $450bn a year in lost revenue:
    • You’d need ~8–9% EXTRA GDP growth every single year
    • On top of normal growth
  • That means total growth of ~9–10% per year






 

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 13:17
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 12:50
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:25
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:20
It’s not an exact science numbnuts. There are bulls and bears that’s what makes a market, some economists that are bearish some economists that are bullish. Some from either side have their algorithms. You and your propagandists are the Bears. That’s all it is.

It’s no inside secret and certainly not something you’d bet your house on.
Not an exact science but not something you get wrong by $300bn.
Like I said, you’d need growth which is historically unprecedented to cover the loss of tax revenues. To the point where it’s completely unthinkable and unimaginable.

So yes I’d bet my house on something that has less than 1% of happening.
You daft cսnt $300 billion is 1% of our $30 Trillion GDP.

“need growth that is unprecedented” what a cսnt’

GO away you Div!

No wonder you failed GCSE business studies.

Even if GDP growth accelerated from ~2 % to ~3–4 % for many years, it still wouldn’t generate enough additional revenue to cover the full multi-trillion-dollar cost of the cuts. 
You’d need additional GDP growth of ~7–8 percentage points above baseline every year — sustained over a decade — purely to generate enough extra revenue to match the revenue loss.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 13:05
by violator
Fauxstralian wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 12:15 Burnham blocked from standing.
Labour obliterated in May elections & Farage on his way to no.10
Unbelievable o.g by Starmer & his stooges
Apart from the elections he cancelled out of fear. 

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 12:50
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:25
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:20
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:59
 
The tax cuts are $500bn a year and they’ve said it’ll add $300bn to the debt.
There is no real world scenario that pays for those tax cuts.

You can play dumb all you like, but this really is obvious stuff.




 
It’s not an exact science numbnuts. There are bulls and bears that’s what makes a market, some economists that are bearish some economists that are bullish. Some from either side have their algorithms. You and your propagandists are the Bears. That’s all it is.

It’s no inside secret and certainly not something you’d bet your house on.
Not an exact science but not something you get wrong by $300bn.
Like I said, you’d need growth which is historically unprecedented to cover the loss of tax revenues. To the point where it’s completely unthinkable and unimaginable.

So yes I’d bet my house on something that has less than 1% of happening.
You daft cսnt $300 billion is 1% of our $30 Trillion GDP.

“need growth that is unprecedented” what a cսnt’

GO away you Div!

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 12:30
by THUNDERCLINT
Fauxstralian wrote: 25 Jan 2026, 12:15 Burnham blocked from standing.
Labour obliterated in May elections & Farage on his way to no.10
Unbelievable o.g by Starmer & his stooges
Yep, kweer was 100% correct when he said his father made tools.

Done nothing but guarantee the party carves itself up into factions and eats itself alive.

By the time it's over and Nige is PM the Tories will be the opposition and the labour commies behind the ridiculous greens and the comical liberals.

Given the state of those 4 unless a credible centre left party emerges Reform will govern for a generation.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 12:15
by Fauxstralian
Burnham blocked from standing.
Labour obliterated in May elections & Farage on his way to no.10
Unbelievable o.g by Starmer & his stooges

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 25 Jan 2026, 09:39
by Fauxstralian
NEC core group will decide today whether the best candidate Andy Burnham will be allowed to stand for Parliament 
If they block him to protect the abysmal Starmer get ready for a Reform government 

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 22:25
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 22:20
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:59
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:50
Hopefully they get something right one day.
 
The tax cuts are $500bn a year and they’ve said it’ll add $300bn to the debt.
There is no real world scenario that pays for those tax cuts.

You can play dumb all you like, but this really is obvious stuff.



 
It’s not an exact science numbnuts. There are bulls and bears that’s what makes a market, some economists that are bearish some economists that are bullish. Some from either side have their algorithms. You and your propagandists are the Bears. That’s all it is.

It’s no inside secret and certainly not something you’d bet your house on.
Not an exact science but not something you get wrong by $300bn.
Like I said, you’d need growth which is historically unprecedented to cover the loss of tax revenues. To the point where it’s completely unthinkable and unimaginable.

So yes I’d bet my house on something that has less than 1% of happening.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 22:20
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:59
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:50
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:35
 
 No. I’m just listening to dozens of the most highly experienced and respected economists around.
While you are using your GCSE in business studies (that you failed)
Hopefully they get something right one day.
 
The tax cuts are $500bn a year and they’ve said it’ll add $300bn to the debt.
There is no real world scenario that pays for those tax cuts.

You can play dumb all you like, but this really is obvious stuff.

 
It’s not an exact science numbnuts. There are bulls and bears that’s what makes a market, some economists that are bearish some economists that are bullish. Some from either side have their algorithms. You and your propagandists are the Bears. That’s all it is.

It’s no inside secret and certainly not something you’d bet your house on.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:59
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:50
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:35
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:32
Just too stupid to take seriously. Let’s see what happens.

cսnt thinks he’s got a crystal ball ffs!
 
 No. I’m just listening to dozens of the most highly experienced and respected economists around.
While you are using your GCSE in business studies (that you failed)
Hopefully they get something right one day.
 
The tax cuts are $500bn a year and they’ve said it’ll add $300bn to the debt.
There is no real world scenario that pays for those tax cuts.

You can play dumb all you like, but this really is obvious stuff.
 

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:50
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:35
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:32
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:08
Keep reaching son. 
Like I said before, to cover the reduction of tax revenues you need growth way ahead of anything ever recorded.
£300bn on the national debt, every year.


Have a sit down and think that one through.
Just too stupid to take seriously. Let’s see what happens.

cսnt thinks he’s got a crystal ball ffs!
 
 No. I’m just listening to dozens of the most highly experienced and respected economists around.
While you are using your GCSE in business studies (that you failed)
Hopefully they get something right one day.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:35
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:32
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:08
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:47
So they are not using the Gov’t job numbers in their algorithims? Are you sure? Where do they get their job numbers from then? I mean you can’t ignore jobs in any forecast.

And do they all have exactly the same number?
Keep reaching son. 
Like I said before, to cover the reduction of tax revenues you need growth way ahead of anything ever recorded.
£300bn on the national debt, every year.


Have a sit down and think that one through.
Just too stupid to take seriously. Let’s see what happens.

cսnt thinks he’s got a crystal ball ffs!
 
 
 No. I’m just listening to dozens of the most highly experienced and respected economists around.
While you are using your GCSE in business studies (that you failed)

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:35
by Nutsin
Goose do me a favour mate. Can you give your crystal ball a little rub, let me know what next weeks results are gonna be? Much obliged!

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:32
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 21:08
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:47
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:26
You’re getting your government departments confused son.

btw, we’re not talking about one source here. Multiple different sources said the same things.
So they are not using the Gov’t job numbers in their algorithims? Are you sure? Where do they get their job numbers from then? I mean you can’t ignore jobs in any forecast.

And do they all have exactly the same number?
Keep reaching son. 
Like I said before, to cover the reduction of tax revenues you need growth way ahead of anything ever recorded.
£300bn on the national debt, every year.


Have a sit down and think that one through.
Just too stupid to take seriously. Let’s see what happens.

cսnt thinks he’s got a crystal ball ffs!

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 21:08
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:47
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:26
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:22
Yeah we’ve seen just how good they are. They can’t even get close to the job numbers. That’s why Trump fired the woman in charge.

You really are stupid’
You’re getting your government departments confused son.

btw, we’re not talking about one source here. Multiple different sources said the same things.
So they are not using the Gov’t job numbers in their algorithims? Are you sure? Where do they get their job numbers from then? I mean you can’t ignore jobs in any forecast.

And do they all have exactly the same number?
Keep reaching son. 
Like I said before, to cover the reduction of tax revenues you need growth way ahead of anything ever recorded.
£300bn on the national debt, every year.


Have a sit down and think that one through.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:47
by Mr Anon
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:20 Better late than never. For what it’s worth it was a cunty thing to say no doubt. Stupid too, nothing to be gained from it, no matter how it was meant.

 
 
good to hear you say, many people at the moment try to defend the indefensible 

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:47
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:26
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:22
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:17
Hahaha you’re so dense.
i wonder if they count tariff revenue 😂 😂 😂 

We’re talking about the best economists around.

they predict it using a model with huge numbers of data points used to model the impact. This is literally their job, it’s not a few fellas with an excel and some post it notes🤦🏻‍♂️
Yeah we’ve seen just how good they are. They can’t even get close to the job numbers. That’s why Trump fired the woman in charge.

You really are stupid’
You’re getting your government departments confused son.

btw, we’re not talking about one source here. Multiple different sources said the same things.
So they are not using the Gov’t job numbers in their algorithims? Are you sure? Where do they get their job numbers from then? I mean you can’t ignore jobs in any forecast.

And do they all have exactly the same number?

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:26
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:22
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:17
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:13
Possibly. We’ll find out exactly what data they put in to their algorithm. See how thorough they were. A ton of variables no doubt. I wonder if they count Tarrif revenue in their numbers? Although fuck knows how you’d predict that.

Hahaha you’re so dense.
i wonder if they count tariff revenue 😂 😂 😂 

We’re talking about the best economists around.

they predict it using a model with huge numbers of data points used to model the impact. This is literally their job, it’s not a few fellas with an excel and some post it notes🤦🏻‍♂️
Yeah we’ve seen just how good they are. They can’t even get close to the job numbers. That’s why Trump fired the woman in charge.

You really are stupid’
You’re getting your government departments confused son.

btw, we’re not talking about one source here. Multiple different sources said the same things.

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:22
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:17
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:13
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:32
They’re not £300bn off.
Possibly. We’ll find out exactly what data they put in to their algorithm. See how thorough they were. A ton of variables no doubt. I wonder if they count Tarrif revenue in their numbers? Although fuck knows how you’d predict that.

Hahaha you’re so dense.
i wonder if they count tariff revenue 😂 😂 😂 

We’re talking about the best economists around.

they predict it using a model with huge numbers of data points used to model the impact. This is literally their job, it’s not a few fellas with an excel and some post it notes🤦🏻‍♂️
Yeah we’ve seen just how good they are. They can’t even get close to the job numbers. That’s why Trump fired the woman in charge.

You really are stupid’

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:20
by Nutsin
Better late than never. For what it’s worth it was a cunty thing to say no doubt. Stupid too, nothing to be gained from it, no matter how it was meant.


Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:17
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 20:13
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:32
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:30
out of curiosity how accurate do you think these models are? 
And are they the same models that were telling you we were heading for Stagflation ?
They’re not £300bn off.
Possibly. We’ll find out exactly what data they put in to their algorithm. See how thorough they were. A ton of variables no doubt. I wonder if they count Tarrif revenue in their numbers? Although fuck knows how you’d predict that.

Hahaha you’re so dense.
i wonder if they count tariff revenue 😂 😂 😂 

We’re talking about the best economists around.

they predict it using a model with huge numbers of data points used to model the impact. This is literally their job, it’s not a few fellas with an excel and some post it notes🤦🏻‍♂️

Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 20:13
by Nutsin
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:32
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:30
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 16:58
You think it’s an ‘opinion’??? 😂 😂 😂 

it’s the output of the most advanced technical economic models. 
out of curiosity how accurate do you think these models are? 
And are they the same models that were telling you we were heading for Stagflation ?
They’re not £300bn off.
Possibly. We’ll find out exactly what data they put in to their algorithm. See how thorough they were. A ton of variables no doubt. I wonder if they count Tarrif revenue in their numbers? Although fuck knows how you’d predict that.


Re: The Official Politics Thread (enter at your own risk)

Posted: 24 Jan 2026, 19:32
by goose
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 19:30
goose wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 16:58
Nutsin wrote: 24 Jan 2026, 16:54
How has it been proven? It’s January ffs! This is their opinion, forecasts. Just like Stagflation and Inflation and all the others. Let’s see how much growth we get first and how much tax revenues that brings. You really have no idea. Your lack of understanding is unreal!
You think it’s an ‘opinion’??? 😂 😂 😂 

it’s the output of the most advanced technical economic models. 
out of curiosity how accurate do you think these models are? 
And are they the same models that were telling you we were heading for Stagflation ?
They’re not £300bn off.